Technology Assessment and Forecasting
An interesting driver of technology assessment and forecasting that I have learnt from the start of the lesson is ‘the need to prioritize, given limited resources, on whether and when to implement and use new innovations and technologies’. Many a time, countries or firms are hesitant to be the first in the market to test out a new innovation or technology as they are uncertain about the people’s reaction. The fear of failing combined with their risk averse mentality made them a follower, rather than a leader. While this may seem like a safe and risk-free corporate strategy, it may very well lead to the firm being a falling star in this ever changing world. A good example to illustrate this would be the Case study of Kodak.
Kodak had played a significant role in our lives with their domination in the traditional film cameras. However, as the trend heads towards the digital image, Kodak gradually began to lose its market dominance. What many do not know was that Kodak was in fact the first to develop the digital camera in 1975. However, as the directors of Kodak were not keen on this idea and thus, the launch of this digital camera was pushed back to 1996. By then, many other brands had already developed their version of a digital camera and Kodak had lost its competitive advantage in the camera industry. More information about this incident can be found in the following website:
http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2010/03/features/kodak-develops-a-film-giants-self-reinvention
Had Kodak been more adventurous and into technology assessment and forecasting, it could have remained the dominant power in the camera industry. Such is the importance of technology assessment and forecasting!
In today’s world, the trend is such that there are economic and skills insecurities and power is more diffused than before. The US is quickly losing its position as the economic powerhouse and the non-western societies are rising faster than ever. As shared in one of the videos shown in class, the word ‘Future’ is used as an acronym to represent the following:
Fast
Urban
Tribal-new tribes in this world
Universal
Radical
Ethical
These are the emerging trends in the future. In light of this, technology assessment and forecasting is ever more so important. However, should we look at the past to project the future or look at the future and try to work backwards? The former is a realistic behavior, while the latter is more of a wild behavior. To put into the context of technology, the former will be the mindset of a falling star while the latter would be that of a rising star. Shocking?
As emphasized repeatedly, changes are occurring at a rapid rate. New innovations are churned out at an unimaginable pace. We can no longer afford to merely create something that is based on information gathered from the past. People are now looking for refreshing innovations.
An interesting reading that supports this point is reading 2, which is about Futurology. Futurology is basically the scientific means of predicting the future. The article did a comparison between Futurologists and Sci-fi writers. While futurologists use logical and scientific methods, Sci-fi writers are more creative and imaginative. In a way, they stretch the idea of what is possible. The article mentioned that living in such a world of uncertainties, we must sometimes rely on our creativity rather than logic to resolve the pressing issues.
In general, I think that technology assessment and forecasting is a very essential tool that firms and countries alike must possess. Failure to do so will merely limit their chances of achieving success. Furthermore, it is also critical in ensuring sustainable development. After all, technology may have negative externalities on the environment and this is something that the developer of the technology should take into consideration.
On a personal note, I would rate this lesson an 8 out of 10. This lesson is definitely refreshing. However, I feel that the presenters could perhaps be a little clearer on how their presentations tie in with the topic of technology assessment and forecasting.
Monday 31 October 2011
Saturday 22 October 2011
Lesson 9 (18 Oct 2011)
Emerging & future technology
Technology knows no boundaries. With strong desires, wild imagination can be converted into reality through technology. This is nicely summarized by a quote from Kahlil Gibran, “There is a space between man's imagination and man's attainment that may only be traversed by his longing”. Indeed, who would have thought that phones are now able to interact with humans through SIRI, a software that was developed by Apple and made available in iPhone 4S?
The readings for this lesson mentioned some rather interesting emerging technologies like the vibrating gloves that give the wearer superhuman touch powers and the possibility of the transparent phone. Both innovations actually draw reference to the popular movie Iron Man. Clearly, this illustrates that the development of technology can be brought about by mass media which changes the perception of what humans actually want and need.
Other upcoming technologies include things like robotics, biotechnologies, nanotechnologies etc. An interesting emerging technology that was brought up in 2 separate presentations was the brain computer interface technology. It involves the controlling of an external device by using the brain. In other words, thoughts are transmitted as a form of signal to the device. It may sound fictitious or something that will only occur in the movies, however, it has in fact been in practice to assist the diseased. Regardless of how cool it may seem, there is always the morality issue that will be raised by some individuals. Some religions may be against this form of technology as it alters the original creation of human beings. Furthermore, this technology may be exploited for use in acts of terrorism, which further endangers the world. Personally, I think that this is an interesting issue and provides scope for more discussions in class.
It is unknown as to what the future holds for us. However, as of present, a critical problem would be that of erratic climate change. It not only threatens our food stability, but also increases the occurrence of natural disasters like flood around the world. Thus, I feel that an important aspect that the future technology should focus on will be the protection of ecology. Ecotechnology has been found to be able to contribute significantly in the mitigation of climate change as it can reduce the carbon footprints in human activities. As such, I think that more efforts should be made in developing ecotechnology.
On a scale of 1 to 10, I would rate today’s session 8 out of 10. It is fascinating to see what the up and coming technologies are and how they can benefit human lives. However, I feel that there could be further discussions on the possible implications that these technologies might have on us. Nevertheless, it was still an interesting session for me.
Saturday 15 October 2011
Lesson 8 (11 Oct 2011)
Energy and World Change
The lesson started off with an interesting fact about how much more (solar) energy the sun can provide as compared to other natural sources of energy. Just a small fraction of the solar energy provided from the sun is sufficient to meet our energy needs. Yet, we have not fully harnessed the full potential of the Sun’s energy due to the high costs incurred by the large number of solar panels needed. However, this is a sound concept and will definitely reduce the burden on the limited natural resources and cut down emissions significantly.
It cannot be overly emphasized that countries have to reduce their emissions. While it is pleasing to see that countries are increasing their investments in green technology, more efforts should be put in by countries, such as India with only a marginal increase. Germany has set a very good example in their investment in solar energy. Germany experiences all four seasons and does not receive a lot of sunlight. Yet they still chose to invest in solar energy. Their target was to derive 20% of their energy from renewable sources by 2020, and not only are they on track, but they may even surpass the 20% mark to hit 30%.
Moving on to the readings assigned for today’s session. Reading 6 offers a good overview of what we should do to progress towards a renewable energy future. It mentioned suggestions like government to enforce strict sustainability criteria, and supporting climate and energy agreements. However, the recommendations may not be effective due to self-interest. For instance, in a bid to revive the US economy, President Obama reduced the budget Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2011. Where the welfare of the country is at stake, efforts to go green and sustainability are often compromised. Furthermore, there is imperfect information available to all. Thus, it would be difficult, say to monitor the amount of pollution caused by a particular firm.
Presentations given today and the discussions generated were refreshing. It was brought up that the plan to construct wind farms has generated much protest from the local community due to the loss of the natural habitats and landscape. Their concerns were understandable as I would personally be against the idea of having a beautiful view in front of my home being ruined by a wind farm, especially if a premium was paid for that view. Thus, an alternative offered was to develop an offshore wind farm. For me, my preference would be the development of the offshore wind farm because land is scarce. On the other hand, the ocean offers plenty of space as very few physical structures are actually found on the ocean. Furthermore, my guess is that the offshore wind farm may actually generate more wind energy due to the sea breeze. Another presentation was about creating artificial tornadoes using residual gases from nearby plants as a source of energy. The issue raised was about the safety of using such sources. Personally, I feel that safety is not much of a concern since the tornado is artificial and within our control. Rather, people may be slow to accept such technology as they perceive any form of tornado to be dangerous.
On a whole, I would give today lesson a rating of 7/10. While the presentations given were certainly interesting, some were overly technical, making it hard to follow. A brief coverage of what the technology is about and the changes that it could make would make the presentation easier to understand.
The lesson started off with an interesting fact about how much more (solar) energy the sun can provide as compared to other natural sources of energy. Just a small fraction of the solar energy provided from the sun is sufficient to meet our energy needs. Yet, we have not fully harnessed the full potential of the Sun’s energy due to the high costs incurred by the large number of solar panels needed. However, this is a sound concept and will definitely reduce the burden on the limited natural resources and cut down emissions significantly.
It cannot be overly emphasized that countries have to reduce their emissions. While it is pleasing to see that countries are increasing their investments in green technology, more efforts should be put in by countries, such as India with only a marginal increase. Germany has set a very good example in their investment in solar energy. Germany experiences all four seasons and does not receive a lot of sunlight. Yet they still chose to invest in solar energy. Their target was to derive 20% of their energy from renewable sources by 2020, and not only are they on track, but they may even surpass the 20% mark to hit 30%.
Moving on to the readings assigned for today’s session. Reading 6 offers a good overview of what we should do to progress towards a renewable energy future. It mentioned suggestions like government to enforce strict sustainability criteria, and supporting climate and energy agreements. However, the recommendations may not be effective due to self-interest. For instance, in a bid to revive the US economy, President Obama reduced the budget Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2011. Where the welfare of the country is at stake, efforts to go green and sustainability are often compromised. Furthermore, there is imperfect information available to all. Thus, it would be difficult, say to monitor the amount of pollution caused by a particular firm.
Presentations given today and the discussions generated were refreshing. It was brought up that the plan to construct wind farms has generated much protest from the local community due to the loss of the natural habitats and landscape. Their concerns were understandable as I would personally be against the idea of having a beautiful view in front of my home being ruined by a wind farm, especially if a premium was paid for that view. Thus, an alternative offered was to develop an offshore wind farm. For me, my preference would be the development of the offshore wind farm because land is scarce. On the other hand, the ocean offers plenty of space as very few physical structures are actually found on the ocean. Furthermore, my guess is that the offshore wind farm may actually generate more wind energy due to the sea breeze. Another presentation was about creating artificial tornadoes using residual gases from nearby plants as a source of energy. The issue raised was about the safety of using such sources. Personally, I feel that safety is not much of a concern since the tornado is artificial and within our control. Rather, people may be slow to accept such technology as they perceive any form of tornado to be dangerous.
On a whole, I would give today lesson a rating of 7/10. While the presentations given were certainly interesting, some were overly technical, making it hard to follow. A brief coverage of what the technology is about and the changes that it could make would make the presentation easier to understand.
Monday 10 October 2011
Individual Topical Paper (draft)
Hi all,
My individual paper can be found in the following link. The topic is on Integrating the use of the Internet in Religions. Please feel free to look through and review.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/44476189/TWC%20indv%20paper.docx
My individual paper can be found in the following link. The topic is on Integrating the use of the Internet in Religions. Please feel free to look through and review.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/44476189/TWC%20indv%20paper.docx
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