Lesson 10 (25 Oct 2011)

Technology Assessment and Forecasting


An interesting driver of technology assessment and forecasting that I have learnt from the start of the lesson is ‘the need to prioritize, given limited resources, on whether and when to implement and use new innovations and technologies’. Many a time, countries or firms are hesitant to be the first in the market to test out a new innovation or technology as they are uncertain about the people’s reaction. The fear of failing combined with their risk averse mentality made them a follower, rather than a leader. While this may seem like a safe and risk-free corporate strategy, it may very well lead to the firm being a falling star in this ever changing world. A good example to illustrate this would be the Case study of Kodak.


Kodak had played a significant role in our lives with their domination in the traditional film cameras. However, as the trend heads towards the digital image, Kodak gradually began to lose its market dominance. What many do not know was that Kodak was in fact the first to develop the digital camera in 1975. However, as the directors of Kodak were not keen on this idea and thus, the launch of this digital camera was pushed back to 1996. By then, many other brands had already developed their version of a digital camera and Kodak had lost its competitive advantage in the camera industry. More information about this incident can be found in the following website:


http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2010/03/features/kodak-develops-a-film-giants-self-reinvention


Had Kodak been more adventurous and into technology assessment and forecasting, it could have remained the dominant power in the camera industry. Such is the importance of technology assessment and forecasting!


In today’s world, the trend is such that there are economic and skills insecurities and power is more diffused than before. The US is quickly losing its position as the economic powerhouse and the non-western societies are rising faster than ever. As shared in one of the videos shown in class, the word ‘Future’ is used as an acronym to represent the following:


Fast


Urban


Tribal-new tribes in this world


Universal


Radical


Ethical


These are the emerging trends in the future. In light of this, technology assessment and forecasting is ever more so important. However, should we look at the past to project the future or look at the future and try to work backwards? The former is a realistic behavior, while the latter is more of a wild behavior. To put into the context of technology, the former will be the mindset of a falling star while the latter would be that of a rising star. Shocking?


As emphasized repeatedly, changes are occurring at a rapid rate. New innovations are churned out at an unimaginable pace. We can no longer afford to merely create something that is based on information gathered from the past. People are now looking for refreshing innovations.


An interesting reading that supports this point is reading 2, which is about Futurology. Futurology is basically the scientific means of predicting the future. The article did a comparison between Futurologists and Sci-fi writers. While futurologists use logical and scientific methods, Sci-fi writers are more creative and imaginative. In a way, they stretch the idea of what is possible. The article mentioned that living in such a world of uncertainties, we must sometimes rely on our creativity rather than logic to resolve the pressing issues.


In general, I think that technology assessment and forecasting is a very essential tool that firms and countries alike must possess. Failure to do so will merely limit their chances of achieving success. Furthermore, it is also critical in ensuring sustainable development. After all, technology may have negative externalities on the environment and this is something that the developer of the technology should take into consideration.


On a personal note, I would rate this lesson an 8 out of 10. This lesson is definitely refreshing. However, I feel that the presenters could perhaps be a little clearer on how their presentations tie in with the topic of technology assessment and forecasting.